While in Beijing this past winter, the high-profile Jiangsu tycoon Yan Jiehe offered the prediction that there will also be a “winter” for China’s SMEs: In the coming 5 to 10 years, 99% of SMEs will die. This journalist has interviewed Yan Jiehe numerous times and he has consistently and intensely insisted upon this view.
Yan Jiehe’s view has a macroeconomic context: 30 years after the Reform and Opening up, China’s economy is in a period of major transformation. This transformation is the transformation of the economy from disorder to order, from pursuing quantity to pursuing quality. It is precisely against this backdrop that the “Labor Contract Law” was passed and the country has begun vigorously advocating the conservation of energy and reduction of emissions. SMEs, without exception, will be severely impacted.
There is already a case that supports Yan Jiehe’s viewpoint. China’s home appliances industry at one time was vast, with over 40,000 companies in 1992, but by 2002, only around 400 companies were left, and by 2007, there were only around 100 companies. The survival rate is 0.2%, with 99.8% of companies having died off. With this many enterprises gone, is there any shortage of home appliances in the market? No, and it remains a buyer’s market. Henceforth, China’s SMEs will all face the same predicament the home appliances industry has gone through, where the vast majority of SMEs will die in the midst of of intense market competition.
During Yan Jiehe’s lecture, both guests and reporters asked the same question: Under 2008′s tightening monetary policy, financing for SMEs will be even more difficult, so how should this difficulty be solved? In the face of this question, Yan Jiehe’s response was very blunt, “There’s nothing you can do, don’t harbor any delusions.”
What do you think of Yan JIehe’s views?
Reproduced from Synergic Enterprises:http://s-scm.com/blog/prediction-99-small-medium-enterprises-die-alarmist-talk/
没有评论:
发表评论